I’m in a prognosticating mood. Here’s my take on the evolution and future direction of the Internet, Internet technology and applications, business opportunities, and skills.
Pre-Wave had very little commercial activity. UUNET is one of the few examples that comes to mind..
- ?-1993
- Research
- Hackers/hobbyists build applications
- Significant technical talent required. Massive capitalization required.
The First Internet Wave was characterized by hustlers rounding up money and talent to build and deploy businesses on the web. Think Amazon…
- 1994-2001
- Commerce
- Developers/engineers build applications
- Success requires significant technical talent and significant capital.
The Second Internet Wave is characterized by the technologists and designers building and deploying businesses on the web. Think Facebook…
- 2004-present
- Communication/Community
- Designers build applications
- Success requires far less technical talent and far less capital.
The Third Internet Wave will be characterized by users building and deploying solutions to their own problems.
- 2011-?
- Collaboration
- Users build applications
- Minimal technical requirements
- Non-existent capital requirements
The ease with which a non-tech savvy user can create, customize, and use a tool like WordPress is a beautiful indicator of what the third wave will look like.
Got a problem? Solve it yourself… Beautiful!
- Bandit
If myspace/bebo pages are anything to go by, the future won’t be beautiful. Users won’t really create applications. My analogy is that in the olden days, it took expertise to build a house. These days you can erect a tent in seconds. They both have the same function (keeping the rain off your head) but there will be still a need for really smart geeks to build the ‘tents’ for everyone else and fool us into thinking we just mashed together something smart.
The thing characterising the third wave will be the immediacy and constancy of data.
Most people will have GPS-enabled 3G phones for a start. Most people will have some sort of account on some sort of social network. Most people will leave on the default option (or install the mini application) which links into their phone’s GPS.
Going Dark will become part of the lexicon of the common man and not just something geeks do every now and then in order to be missed. Of course, WHEN you go dark, people will be more interested. Why are you dark? What are you doing? Why would anyone want to fall off the grid on a Saturday night? Why is a sleazy motel in your last approach vector?
I also predict we’re going to see applications built to circumvent that. you’ll be able to pre-record ‘location’ and report sequences of timed location so you can be on the move while in said sleazy motel…
People are already crap at maintaining their privacy, why would the future be different?
I think your tent analogy hits the mark perfectly. Tent + camping gear + etc. Want a web-site? Create a WordPress account, pick a theme, add some widgets to the sidebar, write some content. Now you have a web-site. What’s amazing to me is that, despite how amateurish some of these sites look, they look more professional than many of the custom built sites I see that people spent $5000+ on.
The other thing that amazes me is how comfortable people are taking the reins and building loose mashup applications to solve problems right now. I recently read an e-mail describing the steps to setting up a mailing list, web-site, etc. for a community soccer team, involving several moving parts. My neighbor, a biology teacher at a local school, avoided the school’s proprietary CMS application, and set up his own based on his own needs.
There will be a role for engineers, programmers, and designers. They’ll design and build the tents, as you suggest.
I need to mull over your suggestion about immediacy and constancy. I understand what you’re saying. Are they an extension of communication, or are they an element of collaboration? I see collaboration as both an online and offline thing. In the offline world, knowing how to find someone when you need to get something done is important.
As always, mj, thanks for the thoughtful comments!